Level 3 Intelligence Analyst Certification

Predictive Intelligence Analysis

The views expressed in this course are the instructor’s alone and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Government, the Intelligence Community, or the Department of Defense.

What you’ll learn

  • Apply critical thinking skills during the analytic process.
  • Demonstate the role of probabilities in predictive analysis.
  • Create and use probability trees.
  • Create and use utility trees and utility matrices.
  • Create and use an advanced utility matrix.
  • Understand how Bayes applies to intelligence predictions.
  • Use Excel to apply Bayes to aid intelligence analysis.

Course Content

  • The Role of Thinking & Probabilities in Predictive Intelligence –> 4 lectures • 28min.
  • Utility Analysis for Predictive Intelligence –> 6 lectures • 49min.
  • Bayes Rule –> 8 lectures • 51min.
  • Conclusion –> 0 lectures • 0min.

Level 3 Intelligence Analyst Certification

Requirements

  • Students must have successfully completed the Level 1 and Level 2 Intelligence Analyst Certification courses before enrolling in this course. It is preferred that students have a working knowledge of and access to MS Excel to complete this course..
  • A familiarity with and access to MS Excel is highly recommended but not required..

The views expressed in this course are the instructor’s alone and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Government, the Intelligence Community, or the Department of Defense.

This course builds on the Level 1 and Level 2 courses on Intelligence Analysis to teach the student how to think in probabilities and structure their analysis to produce predictive intelligence.  Upon completion of the course, the graduate will be able to use MS Excel to apply the Bayes Theorem to participate in forecasting tournaments and make specific intelligence predictions to prevent surprise.

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